Holy Roman Empire-Chapter 891 - 154: Confused Belgium

Having left the Palace, Prime Minister Terence Burke’s back was soaked with sweat; he realized he had been betrayed.

Coincidence?

There are no coincidences in politics, and even if something truly is a coincidence, the Emperor must believe so too.

Lobbying the Emperor to declare war was not a problem; it was part of the Prime Minister’s job and not considered overstepping bounds.

However, coinciding with the attack on the soldiers and being misinterpreted by the Emperor as a coup was a serious problem.

After some thought, Terence Burke pinpointed his suspicions on the Undersecretary for Agriculture, "Rafael", but he couldn’t understand why his confidant would betray him.

Rafael had secured a lucrative position managing a farm, a role Terence himself had pushed him into; it was indeed a favor received.

Bureaucratic circles also valued personal relationships; a traitor would be despised wherever he went, and if switching sides, it would only be after Terence Burke’s influence had waned.

Stabbing him in the back at this time was akin to seeking death; with Terence Burke’s power, he could easily crush Rafael before his own downfall.

What’s done is done; there was no point in getting entangled in this issue now.

Perhaps the fool Rafael had been manipulated by someone else; at least Terence Burke didn’t believe Rafael had the guts to mastermind this incident.

It seemed calm on the surface, letting the Belgians take the blame, but that didn’t mean the issue was over.

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The French government and the Emperor themselves had been set up. How could such overt discord between the monarch and his subjects be left unaddressed?

Prime Minister Terence Burke had decided to investigate thoroughly. Whoever was responsible had to be ready to face the retaliation from the most powerful in France, assuming they could be identified.

Once he calmed down, Terence Burke quickly discarded these distracting thoughts. War was imminent and a multitude of tasks awaited him; this was no time to dwell on such matters.

...

On September 24, 1890, the French government issued an ultimatum to Belgium, demanding that the Belgian government hand over the kidnapped soldiers and the culprits who attacked the French soldiers, and pay a compensation of one billion francs, within 48 hours.

Upon receiving this dreadful news, Leopold II, who was still celebrating significant achievements from a joint blockade, was dumbfounded.

This wasn’t how things were supposed to play out. Typically, after being blocked, the French would engage in verbal battles with the Anti-French Alliance and then negotiate; war was only considered if negotiations failed entirely.

Unfortunately, the French created a pretext for war right from the start by issuing the war ultimatum, completely disregarding standard protocols.

It was bad enough that the French manufactured excuses to start a war, but the real issue was that, instead of attacking Germany and Austria, they targeted Belgium, leaving Leopold II genuinely distressed.

Knowing what was at stake, the Belgian government had made great efforts to prevent this war, including actively engaging in diplomatic mediation.

Hoping for Anglo-Austrian mediation, it turned out Britain was unreliable, selling them out; Austria, preferring to watch the turmoil than to minimize it, pushed France further into a corner instead of helping to ease the tensions after getting involved.

Even when forced to join the Anti-French Alliance, Leopold II had tried to reduce his visibility, leaving all conspicuous actions to Germany and Austria.

Unfortunately, the inevitable still approached; Belgium’s geographic position meant they couldn’t escape being targeted.

After collecting his thoughts, Leopold II asked, "What did the ministers from Germany and Austria say?"

Conceding was out of the question; aside from the enormous compensation, the nonexistent culprits and missing soldiers meant the Belgian government couldn’t possibly comply.

Foreign Minister Jul replied bitterly, "the German Minister hasn’t given a definitive answer and needs to wait for domestic decisions.

The Austrian diplomat stated that whatever decision we make, they will support us, including going to war with France."

Talking about starting a war is easy, but if one actually breaks out, Belgium would be the biggest victim.

Anyone with a bit of military knowledge knows that unless the Anti-French Alliance takes the initiative to strike, Belgium would be the main battlefield between the Alliance and the French Army.

Taking the initiative is impossible, including Belgium, the members of the Anti-French Alliance are not prepared for war.

The Austrian army is still in its own country, and even if it arrives as fast as possible, that would be a matter of half a month later.

In fact, if the Austrian army could be deployed to the battlefield within a month, it would be considered full effort.

Perhaps an ordinary person could travel from Vienna to Brussels by train in just two days, but troop movement is different.

Assembling troops takes time, mobilization takes time, and the transportation of equipment and logistical supplies also takes time.

The capacity of the railways is also not unlimited; ordinarily, a train can transport the troops of one battalion at most, and many times, not even the troops of one company can be transported with their weapons and logistical supplies.

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Belgium has no capability to solve the logistical problems of reinforcements on its own; the Austrian army must bring everything with them.

Because of different rail gauges, multiple train changes are needed en route. Each transfer requires the unloading and reloading of supplies, wasting a lot of time along the way.

The most optimistic estimate, from the departure from Austria to arrival in Belgium, would also take four to five days.

Including the preparation time at the start and the time needed to regroup upon arrival, it would take at least ten days before being able to engage in combat.

This might not seem like much time, but the reinforcement troops are not just one or two companies, but rather thousands, even tens of thousands of companies.

Transporting one company per train car, with a train departing every half-hour, the railway could at most perform 48 dispatches per day, equivalent to transporting 48 companies, about the strength of two regiments.

Speed cannot be increased; at this time, achieving international transportation at a rate of one train every half hour is already quite difficult.

There are just a few railway lines leading from Austria to Belgium, and even accounting for all of them, transporting two divisions a day would be the limit.

In fact, guaranteeing the daily transportation of one division would already be a miracle.

Rail transport cannot operate at the limit; dispatching a train every half-hour with the technology of this era is too difficult in terms of coordination and scheduling, and should an accident occur en route, a collision could easily happen.

It cannot be guaranteed that all officials are fully committed; nor can it be ensured that all trains maintain a consistent speed.

If trains are scheduled too close together, there wouldn’t be enough time to brake in an emergency.

Moreover, even if one train stops, there’s no guarantee that the following train won’t collide into it.

This is still just the infantry; if transporting artillery or armored troops, whether the carriages could accommodate the large equipment is another question.

In a sense, the Anti-French Alliance is at a disadvantage in terms of railway transport.

Germany and Austria have it somewhat better; even though the tracks are not completely consistent, the stations are connected, and the distance for manual labor transport isn’t far.

For Prussia and Germany, the railways mostly act independently, and there might be the need to transfer across ten or more miles between stations, which wastes a great deal of time.

Before Austrian reinforcements arrive, Belgium can only fight alongside the German Federation, leaving the Anti-French Alliance at an absolute disadvantage in the short term.

After a short period of contemplation, Leopold II said seriously, "The French are prepared, war has become unavoidable, and we must start preparing for war now.

Send a telegram to the Vienna Government, tell the Austrians we will not make concessions, and urge them to send troops as soon as possible.

The Foreign Ministry should negotiate with the French as much as possible; we need time…"