MTL - Survivorship Bias-Chapter 106 true and false witch

At the moment when Toudou Sakura took off, many possibilities flashed in Lao Yu's mind.

He is a witch himself, and his perspective is different from others. Todo Sakura in front of him was the first to get up and deceive him during the election process. At that time, he was afraid of revealing that he was a priest and wore a civilian card clothes.

But now Todo Sakura lied that she was a witch, and gave a killing card to silver water.

Then she really kicked the iron plate!

Todo Sakura was still emphasizing her identity at this time.

"I am the only true witch in the audience, you can analyze it when you see your cards clearly, can Andrew make a prophet card, why did he save me as a prophet? What about the person who sent the search and kill? I will not argue with you logic. In this game, there is a card of Gargoyle that does not meet the Wolves. Then the Wolves only have three people at the beginning. The situation of three people I'll take a self-knife, as a witch, when there are gargoyles, I must be cautious to prescribe the antidote, for fear of saving the gargoyle, so I don't believe that Meghan can make a self-knife card."

"As for the gargoyle," Todo Sakura smiled, "a statement like her can't be a gargoyle, the gargoyle's main behavior in this round should be to find his wolf teammates , and hinted to his wolf teammates for his first night's inspection, but Megan did not comment on anyone on the field, did not specifically say who was a good person and who was a wolf, but chose not to send her a message in the two prophecies. The one who killed, this mentality can't make a gargoyle. If she is a gargoyle, won't this position jump in place?"

Todo Sakura spoke in a well-structured manner, restrained her joking tone, and was completely different during the campaign.

"She can only be made into a good card that fell into the night, and I did save her last night, so in my eyes, the only one who killed my Yinshui was a wolf , and not a gargoyle. The true prophet is Matsuura Mori, and this Andrew is a wolf."

She spoke strongly, "I repeat, I am a witch, if someone behind me wants to dance with me, I will prescribe poison tonight, whoever dances I will poison anyone, today I will let this fake The middle priest is out. Pass."

Everyone's attention came to Lao Yu.

An Wujiu also turned his face slightly.

He didn't comment on Lao Yu during the election campaign, it wasn't that he cared about Lao Yu's emotional style, but that An Wujiu felt very problematic.

The more excited the more helpless, must be the people who can't prove themselves and don't have much information.

However, Lao Yu's emotions were really overexcited. Instead, he was a bit like a magic card for wearing people's clothes.

He can't point this out during his campaign. If Lao Yu is really a god, An Wu Jiu pointed out this logic and it is likely to be beaten by the standard wolf, only the wolf will look for a god, so An Wu Jiu played Tai Chi and did not talk about Lao Yu.

An Wu Jiu was a little worried that Lao Yu would lose his temper in this round and jump out of his identity.

He suspected that he was a witch because he saw Todo Sakura's expression and couldn't hide it. If it's really a witch, you don't have to jump on the identity, and at night, you will directly poison the player who is dancing with the witch.

But this involves the issue of true and false prophets. If they can't push out the false prophet this round, it may affect the witch's poison target.

In short, witches are needed to do psychological games.

Old Yu's face was heavy, not as aggressive and face-to-face as the campaign, but calmly said: "I am the real witch, Todo Sakura is fake, and her silver water is fake too Yes, last night I rescued Matsuura Mori."

"To be honest," Lao Yu sighed, "I originally wanted to hide for a round and wear civilian clothes to hide from the knife, but I feel that the good people in the audience can't see the situation clearly, I If you don't stand up, someone will pretend to be me to deceive everyone. This Todo Sakura was very bad during the campaign before, and her speech is very strange. She is now standing in Matsuura. Go to Dirty True Prophet's team, if you think Todo Sakura said this and then stand in line with Matsuura, you will definitely doubt True Prophet Matsuura in the next round, and it will be even harder for us good people to find that gargoyle."

"So I can only stand up," he looked at Toudou Sakura on his right, "You listen to Toudou Sakura's speech, you know that she is not a witch at all, since she saves her The No. 5 Megan came down, but she has been arguing whether No. 5 can be a wolf. The Iron Witch only pays the silver water, and there is no need for you to decide whether she is right or not, and she is not in today's round. And Tengtang Sakura didn't say why she saved Megan last night, you don't seem to have anything to do with her."

"So you will be out of the game today." Lao Yu looked at the others, "Tengtang Ying is a wolf, she is standing by the side just to smear her identity as a prophet, then I will see my cards and see The person I rescued, Andrew is an iron wolf in my eyes, there are already two wolves, Megan is Andrew's killing, I originally thought that Megan should be a preference, but I can't rule out the wolf stepping on the wolf. Get up and fish this Megan, then I think she may be made into a gargoyle."

He analyzed the others: "You think, the gargoyles don't meet them at night, so Todo Sakura and Andrew don't know who the gargoyle is, but Andrew got up and sent her a Killing, if it is an ordinary person, would it be good to show water? But Meghan's speech seems to be deliberately bad, as if she is handing a message."

"I feel Toudou Sakura understands that she is a gargoyle, so now after the election is over, she will dance a witch to save her. This logic is possible, right?"

Old Yu pointed to Megan, "She must be a gargoyle, pretending to be stunned here. Then my wolf pit is Andrew, Todo Sakura and Megan. Todo Sakura and Andrew are the wolf stepping on the wolf, too Step on each other with gargoyles."

He does look like a witch. But An Wu Jiu always had a looming unease in his heart.

According to the idea of ​​being a real witch, it seems that everything is going too smoothly.

Would the Wolves really play so hard?

But if the wolves spend a little bit of tactics, it is really hard for people to believe that if the wolves step on the wolves and fight, there will always be wolves that last until the third day.

Wolves are not easy this time.

"Let this Megan out today, if she is a gargoyle, the Wolves will have no backing." Lao Yu Qiang said, "I will definitely poison Toutang Sakura tonight, tonight It must be a double death. Matsuura Mori is the true prophet. I don’t think werewolves will kill themselves, and even if there is a self-sabotage wolf, don’t forget, there is a priest among us who exclusively rules the self-sabotage wolf. of."

An Wujiu had no expression on his face.

What Lao Yu said was his grave keeper.

Once there is really a good person in the presence of the sword wolf, and the ticket allows another person to be pushed out as a sacrifice at the morning sacrifice, then he only needs to check at night whether the sacrifice of the morning sacrifice is Good or bad, everything is clear.

If the sacrifice they pushed out is a good person, then the identity that opposes him must be a werewolf.

If the sacrifice proves to be a werewolf, then their decision is correct, and the good people are not on the wrong side.

But this identity card is not easy to jump. The witch has a bottle of poison in her hand, and the hunter has a gun in her hand. If she sees a pair of jumpers, she can kill them, but he is the gravekeeper Nothing but an autopsy.

"I heard the oracle last night telling me that Matsuura Mori was dead, I didn't want to save people, and I didn't know it, and I was afraid that the Wolves had killed the gargoyle and didn't know, What if I am rescued and do something bad with good intentions. But I heard a sentence, not on purpose, but I accidentally overheard Sakura Todo and Matsuura when they were talking."

"Matsuura said that if he can't succeed this round, he may not be able to resurrect."

Matsuura was stunned when he heard Lao Yu say these words.

"I thought about it, in fact, he and I are still suffering from the same disease, so I decided to save him, as long as he is a good person, he will be able to see the situation clearly. This is my mentality as a witch course."

He spoke very sincerely, which was very different from the election campaign, An Wujiu deliberately observed other people's expressions, probably because Lao Yu was too emotional before, many people listened to it now These words are still skeptical.

"Anyway, I must produce this middle priest today, I am a witch, Matsuura is the person I saved last night, I will do the golden water given to me, Andrew must be the fierce jumping wolf , Meghan may be a gargoyle, Tengtang Sakurai wolf, I will find the last wolf after listening to the speech, and the rest will pass first."

It was An Wu's turn.

He thought about it for a while, then raised his eyes and said, "There are two prophets and two witches on the field, one wolf and one good person, I can't photograph the identity, the three of us are sitting three in a row. The probability of having an identity is not high. When they said it just now, I thought about it, and now there are five focus cards on the field, two prophets, two witches, and one killing card. Which one is more secure to sacrifice? Think that's something for us good people to think about."

"To be honest," he turned to look at Lao Yu, "I also really want to get rid of the gargoyle on the first day, but I always feel that Meghan is not a gargoyle, unless the election is in After Andrew, everyone is not a wolf card. Because if it is, there will definitely be wolf teammates who find out that the gargoyle has been killed, and make up for their teammates by jumping in place. No one jumped the oracle in the placement."

"One more thing, if Megan is a gargoyle, not an ordinary wolf, you can think in a different position. If you are a gargoyle, you were just killed by a prophet when you were running. What will you do? Wait for the wolf teammates you don’t meet to make a temporary jump to catch you, or do you take off on your own? I think everyone should generally choose the latter, because the gargoyle has a natural advantage in taking off, because the gargoyle itself can Test people, or even directly test the magic cards, right?"

After An Wujiu finished speaking, she looked at Megan, her face was not very good.

"So I think she is an ordinary werewolf card at most. This is based on the premise that Andrew is a true prophet. I analyze it like this. If the true prophet is Matsuura Mori, this point of view He was about to be overthrown. Matsuura tested Lao Yu. He said that he was a good person. Lao Yu jumped the witch card behind Todo Sakura and said that the werewolf killed Matsuura Mori last night. If Matsuura is really a prophet, the old man will be overthrown. So the witch, Sakura Todo is a wolf, Andrew is a wolf, and Megan is unknown."

"If Lao Yu is not a witch, just another good card, it is not impossible, because if a witch dances in this place, he will be stronger than the villagers to keep the prophet Matsuura Mori."

"That is to say, when Andrew is a prophet, Todo Sakura, Matsuura Mori and Megan are three werewolves, on the contrary, Matsuura is a prophet, Lao Yu and Toto Sakura have a witch, Andrew jumps into the wolf, Megan's identity is doubtful, Wu You No. 8 and No. No. 9 Noah who voted for Andrew have to open the wolf, there may still be barbed wolves during the election, and the wolf pit on this side is relatively difficult to fight clearly. come out."

"I listened to the previous speech, and the seventh Shen Ti is a good person."

As soon as An Wujiu finished speaking, he glanced at Shen Ti and saw him clutching his chest with a pretentious look of "You are so nice".

"The wolf pit he opened is similar to what I thought, and he didn't jump into the prophet, and also withdrew from the election, because he wanted to give this divine staff to the real prophet. He is temporarily in my mind. Settle people."

Hearing the word tentative, Shen Ti pursed his mouth again, put down the hand covering his heart, and returned to the state of lazily holding his face in his hand.

"The three cards in the vote, the sound of Nanshan's condition is relatively good, but he gave the vote to Matsuura during the election, and he felt that he would not stand for him when he came down. In fact, the two prophets must be If you stand one, you can listen to the speeches, but you won't do if you don't stand in line. Wu You and Noah only tell the truth about the reasons for voting. You can talk more, because the people who vote will definitely be the focus of everyone's attention, and they will always let you explain. Why vote that way.

I don't want to comment on the two witches, because you can solve your own affairs, and I will definitely not bring the poison to myself. "

An Wujiu said with a smile, "Actually, when I heard the two witches say the message of saving lives, my first reaction was very happy, because I thought that on the first night I should Die, but neither of the two knives are on me. But what?"

"I suddenly found out that this is not something I should be thankful for." An Wujiu raised his eyebrows, "Because I think, when I meet a Wolves who are not very good at playing and are very afraid of me , will definitely kill me on the first night, and the witch won't prescribe medicine. But it's not me who died, then I have to think about it, why didn't the Wolves kill me? Is it because they really aren't afraid of me? "

An Wujiu stretched out his right hand and placed it on the glass cover of the kerosene lamp at the top of the lamppost, the hot temperature immediately reached his cold palm.

"I think they want to take advantage of other people's fear of me and deliberately keep me on the court. In this way, maybe I may enter the good man's wolf pit and become an anti-push position. They block the next sacrifice and get the best of both worlds."

This statement seems to open up a new horizon for the players on the field.

An Wujiu's smile gradually disappeared.

"So I guess, the Wolves this time should be a high-profile player."

After he finished speaking, he returned to a relaxed state, "That's all I can share. As far as the two prophets spoke, Andrew must have preferred it, his speech was flawless, and the object to be tested was also chosen. Not bad, but Matsuura jumped first. I have a certain tolerance for him. In fact, I feel that witches are more difficult to distinguish, but fortunately, you are a card that can prove your identity. Werewolves will definitely not go to knife witches, so I Don't analyze too much."

"I originally thought of Megan because she didn't speak well, but I was afraid of pushing Megan. The next day the gravekeeper said she was a wolf, and we couldn't define Andrew's identity. , because Meghan may kill herself. I will listen to the two prophets again. I still think that the sacrificial prophet is best to define the identity, and the tomb keeper has verified that it is a wolf or a wolf. "

"It's over."

After An Wujiu finished speaking, it was the turn of No. 12 Matsuura Mori.

His expression was not as relaxed as it seemed when he spoke in the first round, and he even sighed softly before speaking.

"No. 12 spoke, I am indeed a true prophet, and I did test No. 2 last night. No. 2 is a good person. I can't directly say that he must be a witch, but he It's the really good guy I found out last night, I hope you don't put No. 2 in the wolf pit, he's a good guy. He can prove himself whether it's a witch, so I won't talk about his specific identity."

"You said that I didn't choose the person to be tested well enough, indeed, because I was the first to jump into the prophet, one of the first three speeches was a fraudulent identity, and the other was a fraud. I sound like a good guy, so I don't listen much, and I can change it after the campaign is over."

"The second is the gargoyle, I'm not good at picking out the gargoyle in the fourth position to speak, and this is not a card that can be drawn just by looking at the face, the first three are not Like, in my eyes, the gargoyle must not want to focus on himself in the first round, otherwise it is very dangerous, and the wolf teammates may not recognize him, plus I hope good people can recognize me as a prophet, so I speak More euphemistically, I hope I can vote for me, in this case, I will not fight a certain person, it must be a wolf or a gargoyle, I still want this divine scepter."

I know if you can stand with me this round, in short, I have said everything I have to say. If you can believe me, Andrew will be out this round, he is the wolf who jumped against me. "

"Tonight I will not test No. 1, I will test No. 8 Wu You, Wu You voted for Andrew and spoke very short. If I am still alive, I will test the fourth tomorrow night No. (Zhou Yijue), because No. 1, An Wu Jiu, I think he is a good person, so the good person I tested was old, Tengtang Ying was a witch, the witch will definitely prescribe drugs tonight, I don't need to test, Megan, I heard An Wu Jiu He Lao Yu said to push her, I don’t think it is necessary, she was killed by a wolf, you can keep it before listening to her speech, this round must destroy the divine scepter, let Andrew out, I will go to Zhou Yijue tomorrow night.”

already."

It was Yang Ce's turn.

Yang Ce's face showed a slightly puzzled expression.

"I feel that the twelfth is not very good at chatting. They don't vote for you because you are not good at talking about the election."

"He didn't dare to talk about witches, did you hear that?"

Yang Ce said to everyone: "Matsuura just said so, the witch will solve it at night, but this round is because the witch jumped out, and it became the situation of strong confrontation now. You guys. If you don’t talk about witches, let me talk. Two witches come out, one will give Yinshui the killing card, and one will give the other prophet Yinshui.”

"Since this is the case, no one else dances the witch on the field, then I think the witch must be between these two people, right? We won't fight the prophet, come From the perspective of a witch, if you are a witch when you are old, then Matsuura is a prophet of silver water, right, with a high status, Andrew must be the jumping wolf?"

Yang Ce continued to analyze: "Let's turn it around and see, if you recognize Tengtang Ying as a real witch, yes, someone will definitely recognize her, then Megan is her witch's silver water, werewolf last night It was Megan who killed, right? Is Andrew the wolf who sent Yinshui to kill? Is Megan a wolf? We can still fight in the next round, because she spoke too much, but did you find it? Which witch, in fact, can only produce Andrew."

"In the logic of the two witches, Andrew is not right. And after this, they are all fighting Matsuura's speech and reservations are not good, but the two witches are desperately going to his empty team. Drill, are his teammates two witches?"